In the book of Job we find God sided with Job, even though he was wrong. Not with Elihu the son the Esau even though he was right.  Elihu had said exactly as the Gemara itself says אין  ייסורים בלי עוון There are no afflictions without sin. So we see it is not what one believes or says that is the key difference. Rather it is what one is, his essence--his deeds.

 [I am referring to the end of the Book of Job where God sides with Job in spite of everything his friends had said was true. 

Acta non verba-actions not words is what matters.