17.8.24
The End of Liberalism , published by Michael Huemer, written by Jonathan Anomaly ---Liberalism and Evolution are exact opposites. and biology will always win when pitted against ideology
Revolutions are hard to predict. Place a box of matches near a flame and eventually one of them will catch fire. With enough tinder the fire will spread, even if it spreads in unpredictable ways. Mass migration in the West is a potent form of tinder.
In August of 2024 spontaneous riots erupted in England and Ireland in response to the murder of children by African migrants. Violent crime has become commonplace in the capitals of Europe, and everyone knows why. But sometimes the brutality of the crime, the dishonesty of the media, and the apathy of the government strikes a nerve. A critical mass of people notice patterns, and they react.
When the data indicates that African migrants commit crime in vastly disproportionate numbers, the response of liberal journalists is to hide the identity of the perpetrators. The response of politicians is to pass new “hate speech” laws making it a crime to notice patterns and talk about the issues openly. We are witnessing the death throes of an ideology – one that was doomed to fail from the beginning.
Liberalism originated in part as a rejection of the unequal application of laws and social privileges to different people. So it is no surprise that liberals prize freedom and equality above hierarchy and tradition.
The liberal ideals of private property, free trade, and religious liberty took root in the United States and France through two bloody revolutions. After a century of conflict and two world wars, most European countries adopted liberal institutions. Other countries followed suit under the pressure of international institutions created after 1945.
In the decades following the second world war, liberal countries in the West enjoyed relative peace and prosperity, along with scientific and social innovation. But disaffection in liberal countries is growing. Even progressive liberals are beginning to take notice that trust in the post-war international order is collapsing.
In a newly published paper, we argue that liberalism is unsustainable – that recent trends toward low social trust, inter-group conflict, and falling fertility stem from liberal institutions and the social norms they tend to produce. While liberal institutions may not be solely responsible for these problems, they are ill-equipped to address them effectively. Liberalism is an evolutionary dead end, even if it fosters opportunities for wealth and innovation in the short run.
Immigration and Social Trust
Liberals treat freedom of movement as a moral default. The core liberal commitment to openness – to the free movement of people capital – tends to break down borders, and incentivize companies and political parties to import far more immigrants than citizens of liberal democracies want.
Large corporations support mass immigration because it brings in skilled workers that increase innovation, and unskilled workers that bring manufacturing costs down. Progressive political parties have incentives to import low-skilled people who are more likely to vote for a party that offers generous welfare benefits. Progressive intellectuals seem to support mass immigration because they believe that diversity is more important than group cohesion.
In this sense, liberal democracies tend to foster mass migration – via powerful interest groups – even if majorities of citizens within those countries oppose it. As this process proceeds, social trust tends to fall. A large meta-study recently showed that more ethnic diversity leads to lower social trust.
As social trust erodes, people volunteer less, and governments spend increasing sums of money supplying public goods with the machinery of the state rather than relying on people to do so through charity and social expectations. Low social trust also predicts higher levels of political corruption, less compliance with government mandates, and more distrust between ethnic groups that inhabit a country.
Once this process starts, liberal societies have few resources to deal with the consequences since, by definition, they are committed to remaining neutral on whether any comprehensive moral doctrine or set of social norms should prevail. Non-liberal regimes, by contrast, can use the power of the state to seal off the borders, deport unwanted immigrants, and curb the power of corporations and political parties who contravene the interests of political leaders or the preferences of citizens.
Fertility and Stability
A core commitment of liberalism is that the state must remain neutral on matters related to community and family. Liberal governments cannot privilege one lifestyle or religion over another without giving up their basic commitments.
But in an era in which fertility is falling around the world, this kind of political neutrality may be self-defeating. People who are more religious and more politically conservative have more children within countries. And the same holds true between countries – those that are more religious and conservative have more children than those that are more liberal and secular.
If liberal institutions and the attitudes these institutions shape speed up the rate at which fertility falls, they will be replaced with other institutions and attitudes. And if mass immigration continues, it is likely that this process will accelerate. Within those countries, the religious and conservative citizens will outbreed secular progressives.
Indeed, if current trends continue, Muslims from Africa and the Middle East will become the majority population in many European countries over the next century.
Of course, these trends are not baked in. Things change. Revolutions happen. Societies collapse. Ideologies mutate. And countries go to war – with outsiders or between different groups living within a country. We predict that the current century will see liberalism in retreat, and that governments that call themselves “liberal” will become increasingly illiberal in how they respond to challenges posed by the free movement of people and capital, and the crisis of falling birth rates.
Religion and nationalism are powerful forces. They can lead to conflict within and between groups. But they also seem to promote fertility and social cohesion better than liberal polities do. Ultimately, the winners in the evolutionary game of life are those who reproduce the most, not merely those who accrue power or resources at a particular moment in time.
MY OWN comment on this was written years ago. Liberalism and Evolution are exact opposites. and biology will always win when pitted against ideology, With evolution all men are created unequal.
the notes are in nwc but you can open midi and convert the sound to notes--but without the details.
if you convert this to mp3, be aware that the instruments have to be changed. what works for midi does not work for mp3, --example strings at the end of the piece can not work for mp3. they would have to be changed to cello in the bass and many other adjustments. [i would be happy to do this myself but have no access to any mp3 program]
13.8.24
11.8.24
The question on the Rambam from Yevamot 30a is more severe than is generally known. The problem is the mishna brings the case when a the erva falls to yibum first. The Mishna say if the brother did maamar on her, then her zara [the not related wife] requires halitza. Then Rav Nahman says that according to the opinion there is zika, even just zika will cause the non related wife to require halitza. We hold that there is zika, and so it should be clear that in this case the non related wife is forbidden even without maamar. Yet the Rambam decided the law opposite from what the gemara states. He writes the non related woman requires halitza if mamar was done on the sister.
Then the next mishna brings the case when the non related wife falls to yibum first, and then she and the sister of the wife fall to yibum together. In that case the Rambam writes even if the non related woman fell to yibum only by means of zika, she requires halitza. However the mishna there states only if maamar was done on her, then she requires halitza. Again the Rambam is deciding the law not like the mishna which says only maamar causes the non related wife to be forbidden
yevamot page 30 side A and side B. There is a difference in law between to different kinds of cases. One case is where a unrelated woman is has fallen to be required in yibum by means of zika. The other case is when the sister of the wife of the brother has fallen to yibum by zika. The second case is lite [to Rashi and Rambam,] and forbidden only if maamar [a statement of kidushin is made on her.--But if all that occurred is zika, then the unrelated woman is permitted]. But the first case is more severe. When it is the unrelated woman that has fallen to yibum by zika then she is certainly forbidden to Rashi and Rambam. And Rav Isar Meltzer brings down the commentary on the Mishna of Rambam who suggests that she might be forbidden even from the Torah.[But to the Rashba she is forbidden only if maamar was done on her--i.e., the second brother asked her to marry him.]
I would like here to explain the two cases in more detail. Case one. Three brothers. Two are married to two sisters, and one to an unrelated woman. The last one died, and so the unrelated woman is now required to have yibum by means of zika. [Zika is like a magnetic force that pulls on her to either of the remaining brothers]. Then the second brother died. She is totally forbidden to the remaining brother --maybe even from the Torah. [To Rashi Rambam, not Rashba]. The other case. Three brothers. Two of them are married to two sisters, and one to an unrelated woman. One of the brothers married to a sister died. Now that sister has fallen to yibum to the brother married to the unrelated woman. If that brother did maamar on her [i.e., asked her to marry him] and then died, the third brother cannot marry her. But if the second brother did nothing and said nothing, and then died, then the third brother can marry the unrelated woman.
To Rav Shach the difference is because Zika is not marriage even from the words of the sofrim. And the only reason the zara of the erva by means of zika is forbidden is a special gezera on her because she can be mixed up with an zarat Erva. The question that comes to mind here is: Why assume there is any gezera at all? If the Gemara nor geonim bring such a gezera, why assume it exists [as in fact the Rashba says]? I mean to say the Rashba holds the zara of the erva by zika is permitted. Only if Maamar was done is she permitted.]
the way rav isar meltzer answer this question on the rambam is that the rambam holds that our subject on pg 30 is not according to rava on pg 96 that a yavam does yibum when the wife falls to him from one brother, not two. so our case of the non related wife should clearly forbidden since she has fallen from two brothers. however rav shach points out that that applies only when maamar was done on by both brothers, not just zika as he shows from pg 43b
The way Rav Shach understands this Rambam is that he takes the question on why when the erva falls to yibum first and then she forbids her zara to be forbidden only by maamar is the more relevant question. The reason is that the question on why when the zara falls first, she is forbidden even if only by zika, because the gemara implies that that should be so by the statement of rav nahman. The question is rather why the Rambam holds that when the erva falls first, she causes her zara to be forbidden only by maamar. That is openly against the statement of Rav Nahman. The answer Rav Shach gives is zika can forbid a zara only by means of absolute marriage, as if the case when the non related woman falls by zika to an erva who is absolutely married. But when the erva comes to forbid her zara by means of zika alone, then she does not have enough power to do so. The question on this is that this is directly in contraction to Rav Nahman who says in this exact case that the erva can cause her zara to be forbidden even when she fall only by zika. To try to answer this it is possible to suggest that there are two kinds of zika, one from the Torah and the other from the words of the scribe. Thus, Rav Nahman might mean that the Mishna comes to exclude that the more severe type of zika. However on further thought, this can not be so because Rav Nahman said that by the fact that the Mishna forbids only the case when maamar was done on the erva, we see the mishna holds that there is no such thing as zika. That has to exclude also zika derabanan because otherwise the mishna would say also by zika the erva forbid the non related woman. Thus I think the Keseph Mishna was right that the Rambam meant that zarat erva bezika is forbidden in both cases and mention this only in one case knowing that the other case could be learned from it by means on an ''all the more so'' kind of logic. That is : if the non related wife falls first and she could be married to either of the brothers married with the sisters, you say if one brother died, she is forbidden in yibum because of the zika, all the more so when the erva falls first and could have yibum with only one brother, then if he dies she can forbid the non related wife to be forbidden by her zika.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There is a difference in law between to different kinds of cases. One case is where a unrelated woman [נכרית] is has fallen to be required in יבום by means of זיקה. The other case is when the sister wife of the brother has fallen to יבום by זיקה. The second case is קל [to רש''י and רמב''ם,] and forbidden only if מאמר [a statement of קידושין is made on her. But if ONLY זיקה occurred , then the נכרית is permitted]. But the first case is more severe. When it is the נכרית that has fallen to יבום by זיקה, then she is certainly forbidden to רש''י and רמב''ם. And רב איסר מלצר brings down the commentary on the משנה of רמב''ם who suggests that she might be forbidden even דאורייתא. [But to the רשב''א she is forbidden only if מאמר was done on her, i.e., the second brother asked her to marry him.] I would like here to explain the two cases in more detail. Case one. Three brothers. Two are married to two sisters, and one to an unrelated woman (נכרית). The last one died, and so the נכרית is now required to have יבום by means of זיקה. [זיקה is like a magnetic force that pulls on her to either of the remaining brothers]. Then the second brother died. She is totally forbidden to the remaining brother, maybe even אורייתא. [To רש''י רמב''ם, not רשב''א]. The other case. Three brothers. Two of them are married to two sisters, and one to an נכרית. One of the brothers married to a sister died. Now that sister has fallen to יבום to the brother married to the נכרית. If that brother did מאמר on her [i.e., asked her to marry him] and then died, the third brother cannot marry her. But if the second brother did nothing and said nothing, and then died, then the third brother can marry the נכרית.
The question on the רמב''ם from יבמות ל' ע''א 30 is more severe than is generally known. The problem is the משנה brings the case when a the ערווה falls to יבום first. The משנה say if the brother did מאמר on her, then her צרה [the not related wife נכריתה] requires חליצה. Then רב נחמן says that according to the opinion there is זיקה, even just זיקה will cause the non related wife to require חליצה. We hold that there is זיקה, and so it should be clear that in this case, the non related wife is forbidden even without מאמר. Yet the רמב''ם decided the law opposite from what the גמרא states. He writes the non related woman requires חליצה if מאמר was done on the sister.
Then the next משנה brings the case when the non related wife falls to יבום first, and then she and the sister of the wife fall to יבום together. In that case the רמב''ם writes even if the non related woman fell to יבום only by means of זיקה, she requires חליצה. However the משנה there states only if מאמר was done on her, then she requires חליצה. the רמב''ם is deciding the law not like the משנה which says only מאמר causes the non related wife to be forbidden
The way איסר מלצר answer this question on the רמב''ם is that the רמב''ם holds that our subject on page 30 is not according to רבא on page צ''ו that a יבם does יבום only when the wife falls to him from one brother, not two. So our case of the non related wife should clearly forbidden since she has fallen from two brothers. However רב שך points out that that applies only when מאמר was done on by both brothers, not just זיקה as he shows from מ''ג ע''ב
The way רב שך understands this רמב''ם is that he takes the question on why when the ערוה falls to יבום first and then she forbids her צרה to be forbidden only by מאמר is the more relevant question. The reason is that the question on why when the נכרית falls first, she is forbidden even if only by זיקה, because the גמרא implies that that should be so by the statement of רב נחמן. The question is rather why the רמב''ם holds that when the ערוה falls first, she causes her צרה to be forbidden only by מאמר. That is openly against the statement of רב נחמן. The answer רב שך gives is זיקה can forbid a צרה only by means of absolute marriage, as if the case when the non related woman falls by זיקה to an ערוה who is absolutely married. But when the ערוה comes to forbid her צרה by means of זיקה alone, then she does not have enough power to do so. The question on this is that this is directly in contraction to רב נחמן who says in this exact case that the ערוה can cause her צרה to be forbidden even when she fall only by זיקה. To try to answer this it is possible to suggest that there are two kinds of זיקה, one from the תורה and the other from the words of the סופרים. Thus, רב נחמן might mean that the משנה comes to exclude that the more חמור סוג of זיקה. However on further thought, this can not be so because רב נחמן said that by the fact that the משנה forbids only the case when מאמר was done on the ערוה, we see the משנה holds that there is no such thing as זיקה. That has to exclude also זיקה דרבנן because otherwise the משנה would say also by זיקה the ערוה forbid the non related woman. Thus I think the כסף משנה was right that the רמב''ם meant that צרת ערוה בזיקה is forbidden in both cases, and mention this only in one case knowing that the other case could be learned from it by means on an ''קל וחומר'' kind of logic. That is : if the נכרית falls first and she could be married to either of the brothers married with the sisters, you say if one brother died, she is forbidden in יבום because of the זיקה, all the more so when the ערוה falls first and could have יבום with only one brother, then if he dies, she can forbid the non related wife to be forbidden by her זיקה.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
השאלה
ברמב''ם ביבמות ל' ע''א חמורה מהידוע.
הבעיה היא שהמשנה מביאה את המקרה כאשר הערווה נופלת ליבום ראשונה. המשנה אומרת אם
האח עשה עליה מאמר, הרי צרה שלה חייבת חליצה. ואז רב נחמן אומר שלפי הדעה יש זיקה,
אפילו רק זיקה תגרום לאישה הלא קרובה לדרוש חליצה. אנו קובעים שיש זיקה, ולכן צריך
להיות ברור שבמקרה זה, האישה הלא קרובה אסורה גם בלי מאמר. אולם הרמב''ם הכריע את
הדין הפוך ממה שקובע הגמרא. הוא כותב שהאישה שאינה קשורה דורשת חליצה אם מאמר
נעשה על האחות. ואז המשנה הבאה מביאה את המקרה שבו האישה הלא קרובה נופלת ליבום
ראשונה, ואז היא ואחותה של האישה נופלות ליבום ביחד. במקרה כזה כותב הרמב''ם גם אם
האישה הלא קרובה נפלה ליבום רק באמצעות זיקה, היא דרושה חליצה. אולם המשנה שם
קובעת רק אם מאמר נעשה עליה, אז היא דרושה חליצה. הרמב''ם פוסק את הדין לא כמו
המשנה שאומרת שרק מאמר גורם לאישה הלא קרובה לאיסור
יש הבדל בחוק בין מקרים לסוגים שונים. מקרה אחד הוא שבו אישה שאינה קרובה [נכרית] היא נאלצה להידרש ביבום באמצעות זיקה. המקרה הנוסף הוא כאשר אחות אחותו של האח נפלה לידי ייבום על ידי זיקה. המקרה השני קל [לרש''י ורמב''ם,] ואסור רק אם מאמר. אבל אם רק זיקה התרחשה, אז הנכרית מותרת]. אבל המקרה הראשון חמור יותר. כשזו הנכרית שנפלה יבום על ידי זיקה, אזי ודאי אסורה לרש''י ורמב''ם. ורב איסר מלצר מוריד את פירוש המשנה של רמב''ם המציע שאולי אסורה אפילו דאורייתא. [אבל לרשב''א אסורה רק אם נעשה בה מאמר, כלומר ביקש ממנה האח השני להינשא לו.] אבקש כאן להסביר את שני המקרים ביתר פירוט. מקרה ראשון. שלושה אחים. שניים נשואים לשתי אחיות, ואחת לאישה לא קרובה (נכרית). האחרון מת, ולכן נדרשת כעת הנכרית לקבל ייבום באמצעות זיקה. [זיקה היא כמו כוח מגנטי שמושך אותה לכל אחד מהאחים הנותרים]. ואז האח השני מת. היא אסורה לחלוטין לאח הנותר, אולי אפילו אורייתא. [לרש''י רמב''ם, לא רשב''א]. המקרה השני. שלושה אחים. שתיים מהן נשואות לשתי אחיות ואחת לנכרית. אחד האחים הנשוי לאחות נפטר. עכשיו האחות הזאת נפלה ייבום לאח הנשוי לנכרית. אם האח ההוא אמר עליה [כלומר ביקש ממנה להינשא לו] ואחר כך מת, האח השלישי לא יכול להתחתן איתה. אבל אם האח השני לא עשה כלום ולא אמר כלום, ואז מת, אז האח השלישי יכול להתחתן עם הנכרית
רב שך מסביר ההבל בין אם הערוה זקוקה (שאסורה רק עם מאמר) או הנכרית זקוקה (שאסורה אפילו ע''י זיקה, שזיקה אינה קידושין דרבנן אלא קל ממנה. והוא מביא שסיבת איסורה של נכרית זקוקה היא גזירה מיוחדת שלא יתבלבלו עם צרת ערווה.) הקושיה שיש בזה היא שהרמב''ם המביא בפירוש המשנה שהגמרא והגאונים לא הסבירו מה דינה במצב שהנכרית היא זקוקת הערוה. אם כן למה לנו לחדש גזירה שלא מובא בש''ס? אולי יותר טוב לומר שהרשב''א צדק שהיא אסורה רק אם האח השני עשה מאמר?
הדרך שבה רב איסר מלצר עונה על שאלה זו ברמב''ם היא שהרמב''ם גורס שהנושא שלנו בעמוד ל' אינו לפי רבא בעמוד צ''ו שבם עושה יבום רק כשהאשה נופלת לו מאח אחד, לא שניים. אז יש לאסור בבירור את המקרה שלנו של האישה הלא קרובה, כי היא נפלה משני אחים. אולם רב שך מציין שזה חל רק כאשר מאמר נעשה על ידי שני האחים, לא רק זיקה כפי שהוא מראה מ''ג ע''ב
הדרך
שבה רב שך מבין את הרמב''ם הזה הוא שהוא לוקח את השאלה למה כשהערוה נופלת יבום
תחילה ואז היא אוסרת את צרה שלה ליאסר רק על ידי המאמר היא השאלה היותר רלוונטית.
הסיבה היא שהשאלה מדוע כשהנכרית נופלת תחילה היא אסורה ולו רק על ידי זיקה, משום
שהגמרא רומז שכך צריך להיות על ידי אמירת רב נחמן. השאלה היא דווקא מדוע הרמב''ם
סובר שכאשר נופלת הערוה ראשון, היא גורמת לאיסור צרה רק על ידי המאמר. זה נוגד
בגלוי את דבריו של רב נחמן. התשובה שרב שך נותן היא זיקה יכולה לאסור על שרה רק
באמצעות נישואים מוחלטים, כאילו במקרה שבו האישה הלא קרובה נופלת על ידי זיקה
לערוה שנשואה לחלוטין. אבל כשהערוה באה לאסור עליה את צרה באמצעות זיקה בלבד, אז
אין לה די כוח לעשות כן. השאלה על זה היא שזה ישר כנגד לרב נחמן שאומר בדיוק במקרה
הזה שהערוה יכולה לגרום לאסור לה לצרה גם כשתיפול רק על ידי זיקה. כדי לנסות לענות
על זה אפשר להציע שיש שני סוגים של זיקה, האחד מהתורה והשני מדברי הסופרים. לכן,
רב נחמן עשוי להתכוון לכך שהמשנה בא להוציא את הסוג החמור יותר של זיקה. אולם
במחשבה נוספת, זה לא יכול להיות כך, כי רב נחמן אמר שבעובדה שהמשנה אוסרת רק את
המקרה כאשר המאמר נעשה על הערוה, אנו רואים את המשנה גורס שאין דבר כזה זיקה. זה
חייב להוציא גם את זיקה דרבנן כי אחרת המשנה תאמר גם על ידי זיקת הערוה אסורה הנכרת
(האישה שאינה קרובה). לפיכך אני חושב שהכסף משנה צדק שהרמב''ם התכוון שצרת ערוה
בזיקה אסורה בשני המקרים, ומזכיר זאת רק במקרה אחד מתוך ידיעה שאפשר ללמוד ממנו את
המקרה השני באמצעות ''קל וחומר'' סוג של היגיון. כלומר: אם נפלה הנכרית תחילה
ויכלה להינשא לכל אחד מהאחים הנשואים עם האחיות, אתה אומר אם מת אח אחד אסורה
ביבום מחמת הזיקה, על אחת כמה וכמה כשנופל הערוה תחילה ויכולה להיות יבום עם אח
אחד בלבד, אז אם הוא ימות, היא יכולה לאסור על האישה הלא קרובה להיות אסורה על ידי
זיקה שלה.